Opinion Pool

Our Opinion Pool, hosted by Good Judgement Inc, summarizes public beliefs about a country’s risk of mass killing and other events of concern. Individuals may be unreliable forecasters of rare and complex events, but crowds, even small ones, have been scientifically shown to forecast events with higher degrees of accuracy. Our opinion pool is a structured way of putting this “wisdom of the crowd” principle into action to assess and track change over time in risk of mass atrocities around the world. The Opinion Pool is designed to give policy makers and NGOs continuously updated and immediate forecasts of the risk of mass atrocities by both governments and nonstate actors, especially in evolving situations. To learn more about how our opinion pool works see our FAQ here.

Select a country below to see real-time results from our current Opinion Pool: