The Expert Opinion Pool summarizes subject-matter and regional experts’ current beliefs about a country’s risks of mass atrocities and other events of interest or concern. Individual experts are often unreliable forecasters of rare and complex events, but crowds of experts, even small ones, usually do much better. Our opinion pool is a structured way of putting this “wisdom of the crowd” principle into action to assess and then track change over time in risks of mass atrocities around the world.
The Expert Opinion Pool is always on and updates any time an expert changes her forecast, usually in response to something she has read or seen and considers relevant. The opinion pool also allows those experts to discuss their forecasts and share pertinent information with other participants in a password-protected environment.