Statistical Risk: 
2016 - 3.4%
2015 - 2.7%
2014 - 2.6%

World Ranking: 11/162

Population: 33,417,475

Ongoing Episodes:

Go here to see real-time updates from our public Opinion Pool.

Statistical Risk Assessment

Early Warning Project Blog

Jun 14, 2014

Forecasters in the Early Warning Project's Expert Opinion Pool continue to see Iraq at high risk of an episode of state-led mass killing.

Apr 30, 2014

Iraq’s long-running civil war has spread and intensified again over the past year, and now threatens to devolve into the sort of indiscriminate reprisals that could produce a new episode of state-led mass killing.